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Here is a stick, beat me with it later.
Many pundits, charlatans and so-called-psychics make vague
and untestable prognistications, and escape all consequences of their failure
to be correct simply though passage of time. They are often helped by the
tendancy of the human mind to be good at correlating things that happen with
information, and very much less good at correlating things that fail to happen
with anything at all.
So, I’m inviting you to make a bookmark on this post, and
set a diary reminder for about five years time. That way you can come back and
tell me how badly I missed the mark with my forecasts.
The things that I think are going to be really huge (as in:
they will generate businesses worth over $1bn, at least 1 IPO at over $1bn or
profits of over $200m a year) are:
1.
Clean technology and software technology
cross-overs (using advanced software to reduce energy demands, improve the use
of scarce resources, and reduce waste or pollution);
2.
Brain and consciousness technology, either as
control platforms for devices or to improve health outcomes;
3.
Pervasive networks using RF technologies (think:
Bluetooth ++)
4.
Local micro-services driven from large web
services
5.
Electric cars
6.
Alcohol / Methanol as a fuel
7.
Augmented reality on all platforms
8.
Metal refining using new technologies
9.
New battery technologies
10. Waste-mining
and recovery of metals from waste
The things that I think are going to wither and dry out,
falling to around 20% of their current size or less are:
1.
Hydrogen as a personal fuel
2.
The state and national medical gravy trains (one
can hope)
3.
Tuna fishing
4.
High powered console games machines
5.
Non-smart mobile phones
6.
Novels and movies about Vampires
So, what do you think?
davidjwbailey dot com 